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Showing posts with label War on Terrorism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label War on Terrorism. Show all posts

Monday, June 16, 2014

Islamic State of Iraq and What?

The Sunni Islamist terrorist army swarming over western and northern Iraq refers to itself as الدولة الإسلامية في العراق والشام, which translates to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham.  The term "al-Sham" is the reason the group is sometimes referred to the "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" and other times as the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria".

The term al-Sham (Sham, for short) in Arabic means the land of the left hand because it was to the north of Arabia.  This refers to the person facing the rising sun in Arabia, thus leaving north on the left hand side.  Sham has long been used in classical Arab and Islamic geography to mean Syria, however, not the land of the modern Syrian Arab Republic (سورية , Syria) but the historic region of greater Syria.  For example, the Roman Syria included modern-day Syria, Lebanon, and parts of Turkey while Ottoman Syria also included Israel, Jordan, and parts of Saudi Arabia and Egypt.  Basically, the historic region of Syria is a near perfect match for the western concept of the Levant.

So, a close to literal translation has the group being "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria", however, most readers are likely to confuse greater Syria (al-Sham) with the modern state of Syria.  Because al-Sham is a near perfect fit for the concept of "Levant" and they have made clear their goals are more Leavant-oriented I recommend using the term the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

The ISIL is not a fan of the small boundaries of the Syrian Arab Republic and prefer al-Sham instead. Photo via Twitter.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Middle East War (Iraq Front) Maps Batch 1: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant's Advance

Note: Both the Islamic State of Iraq and the Leavant as well as the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hizbollah axis view the Syrian Civil War and the new Iraq War as one-in-the-same.  It is time we do too.

There are a lot of maps out there showing what is going on in Iraq.  Some are better than others and most tell only a part of the story. However, by combining the maps together one can gain a good understanding of the situation on the ground.

The Washington Post has a good map showing the ethnic breakdown of Iraq as well as the latest updates.  Note how the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, aka Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), aka al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)) has been temporally stopped at Samarra, the northern outpost of Shia Iraq.  The remaining 100 miles to Baghdad will be much harder if not impossible for ISIL as they will be fighting on Shia Arab land against Iranian-trained local militias and not on Sunni Arab land against poorly motivated troops.  Also note how the Kurds have advanced outside their Regional Government and into disputed Kirkuk.  This will pose problems in the future as Baghdad will be unlikely to reassert control in Kurdish-annexed Kirkuk.


Long War Journal has a great map showing cities and towns in Iraq and Syria occupied by ISIL.


View Iraqi and Syrian Towns and Cities seized by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham in a larger map

This Washington Post map shows ISIL controlled areas as islands of population surrounded by desert connected by the only major roads in the hinterlands of Iraq and Syria.  Although I do not think ISIL control is that solid, established in eastern and central Iraq as shown.  (The West Bank is shown separate from Jordan but the text buffer covers most of the border)



While I do not like this map on Twitter showing ISIL control as a solid block, it does a good job showing how the group is focusing on controlling the oil wells and fields.  ISIL likely is selling this oil on the black market thus making it a self-sufficient terrorist army.


This map by a Twitter user, Ghazi, is quite good.  It explains areas of control versus areas of freedom of movement, and it shows how the post-World War I division between Syria and Iraq is basically over (for now at least).


Finally, though no longer novel it is always important to note geographic knowledge is power.  Here is a photo via FlashPointIntel of an ISIL officer planning the offensive using Google Earth.


The Return of the Islamic State of Iraq (and the Levant)

For 2014 Iraq War maps go here

When I left Iraq in 2009 I was feeling good about its future. However, in my final thoughts post I gave a bit of a warning

Is the War Against Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) Won?Some bloggers who never were in Iraq and some who were have declared victory. I meanwhile see AQI as lying on the ground, bleeding from all orifices.While near AQI is near death anyone who says they are defeated is wrong. The greater command network of AQI is destroyed so now AQI is more or less a grouping of quasi-independent regions that relay on themselves for logistical support. Right now most of the fighting against AQI is done by the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police. These organizations still need the help Coalition Forces can supply including advanced targeting and large, overwhelming force.

Sadly we did not follow through.  The Syrian Civil War allowed al Qaeda in Iraq (renamed the Islamic State of Iraq and later Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) to regroup.  Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki used the courts to steal the promising results of the 2010 elections.  The Sunni militias that helped us defeat AQI/ISI were not properly paid and heroes like Colonel Faruq in Haditha were ignored.


Now in a series of blitzkerg attacks ISIL now has combined their war against the Syrian Arab Republic (Assad-regime), their war against the Syrian anti-Assad rebels, and their war against Syrian Kurds with their renewed war against the Iraqi government.  ISIL is moving units back-and-forth across the Syrian-Iraq border because it considers all these wars the same and so should we.


We should consider them the same war not only because ISIL does but so does the other side: the Iran-Hezbollah-Syria-Iraq axis.  In fact, the main reason ISIL has been stopped 100 miles north of Baghdad is because they are now fighting Iranian-trained, Shia militias full of veterans of the American and Syrian wars.  Iran and the Iraqi Shia militas will pull units from Syria to fight ISIL in Iraq.


Meanwhile, I am stuck here thinking about the Iraqis I served with trying to figure out if they are alive or, maybe even, fighting in Sunni militias against the Government of Iraq.  Elsewhere, Mosul has most likely lost its entire Christian population due to death and the exodus in the past 72 hours.

Monday, April 22, 2013

What You Need to Know about the Modern Historical Geography of Chechnya



The Chechen Republic is a ethnic homeland republic within the Russian Federation.  While many Americans have either not heard of the republic or merely second hand and confuse it with the Czech Republic, it is an important area in the War on Terrorism and, as we have seen when the Boston Marathon bombing, of global significance.

Pre-Soviet Union

Ethnic Russians are not native to the region.  The native populations include Armenians, Georgians, Ossetians, Chechens, Abkhaz, and many others.  While the northern Caucasus nominally went back and forth between the Ottoman Empire, Russian Empire, and Persian Empire, on a local level the region stayed independent with local leaders paying small taxes to the far away overlord while life stayed fairly normal.

The Caucasus Region is one of Russian romanticism.  The Russian view the Caucasus as sort of their Wild West.  The Russians used ethnic Slav, culturally Russian Cossacks to make inroads into the region and conquer it step by step.  But even then the Cossack Russians only firmly held main towns and the roads/lines of communication.

Cossack Conquest step by step. From La Salle University
Soviet Union

The Caucasus region was drawn and redrawn during the end of World War I and the rise of the Soviet Union.  Nationalistic forces fought against the Russian monarchists and then the Communist as part of the Mountain Republic and North Caucasian Emirate.  Under the Soviet Union, Stalin formed and reformed various local ethnic homelands.  Eventually in the late 1930s and early 1940s, nationalists rose up against the Soviet Union and allied themselves with Nazi Germany, along with other Caucasus ethnic groups.

Stalin's punishment was severe.  February 23, 1944 saw the start of Operation Lentil.  Lentil was the complete deportation of all Chechens in the region to Central Asia.  All of them.  Tens of thousands if not over hundreds of thousands, out of a population of about half a million, died in this genocide.  Chechens were not allowed to move back until 1957.  In 1959 census showed that Russians and Ukrainians made a majority in Chechnya.  The region was held in check until the collapse of the Soviet Union though the ethnic Chechen population slowly began to regrow.

Chechens round up waiting for deportation by the Soviet Union.  What's the different between Soviet and Nazi ethnic cleansing?  The Soviets completed the job (but since they were part of the Allies we do not teach that in schools).

Post-Soviet Wars

The various republics of the Soviet Union declared their independence and were allowed to leave peacefully with the fall of Communism.  However, Chechnya was not a separate republic in the USSR but a republic within Russia itself.  So when the Chechens established their own Chechen Republic of Ichkeria there was war.  Unready Russian troops were defeated by mostly nationalistic/secularist rebels.  Russia withdrew under an agreement that allowed de facto independence.  The de facto independence of Chechnya saw the mass emigration of ethnic Russians.

From Darussophile
However, in 1999 a Chechen and foreign-Islamist force invaded the neighboring Republic of Dagestan and a series of terrorist attacks targetting Russian apartment buildings (note: this may have been a false flag operation by Moscow).  This launched the Second Chechen War in which the Russians defeated the Chechen rebels.  However, a low-intensity but bloody insurgency first by the remnant forces of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria and then against its successor state, a pan-ethnic Islamist entity known as the Caucasus Emirate continues even today.

The Chechen Republic of Ickeria morphed into the Islamist Caucasus Emirate which wants to control both Christian and Muslim lands in the northern Caucasus
The Chechen Republic itself is governed by the political Islamist, ethnic Chechen, pro-Moscow President Ramzan Kadyrov.  While there are some Russian troops fighting in the Caucasus much of the pro-Moscow fighting is being done by the local troops coming from the various republics who report directly to their own republics, acting much like a national guard.  The situation is more like the Imperial era than the Soviet period as ethnic governments have much more local control than in most of the last century though Moscow takes a very active interest in pushing for action against rebels.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Virtual Geography Convention 2013: Spatial Methodologies for the Analysis of Vulnerability in Urban Areas - A Case Study for Terrorism in Tokoyo, Japan


Welcome to the Virtual Geography Convention 2013!  If you have a presentation or blog post you wished published please contact me at catholicgauze [at] gmail [dot] com!

Konstantin Greger, a graduate student at the University of Tsukuba, is presenting "Spatial Methodologies for the Analysis of Vulnerability in Urban Areas - A Case Study for Terrorism in Tokyo, Japan" at the AAG 2013 conference.
Greger's slides are below and his somewhat html butchered notes area available here.


His abstract is below

"The geographic analysis of crime risk, criminogenic factors and their spatial influence has gained legitimate interest in the past, most notably by the increased popularity in the Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) methodology by Caplan & Kennedy. Our research is an attempt to apply this concept to the analysis of vulnerability to terrorism in urban areas. In the course of this effort we developed a generic Spatial Urban Vulnerability Analysis (SUVA) framework. The aim is to analyze the distribution of vulnerability in space based on the attributes of the objects defining that space (such as people, buildings and infrastructures). This paper is a case study of an application of the SUVA framework in a central area in Tokyo, Japan. First we outline the underlying vulnerability concept, which consists of two factors: susceptibility and disutility. Then we explain the general SUVA framework and analysis methodologies. In the next part we briefly introduce the study area, present the selected vulnerability factors for this case study, and explain their selection process. This is followed by a detailed description of the operationalization of the vulnerability factors using spatial and non-spatial methodologies. We move on to the object-based vulnerability maps and the calculation and visualization of the vulnerability factors' spatial influence. Lastly we combine the single factor maps to a comprehensive vulnerability map of the study area. We conclude the paper with an evaluation of possible target audiences and the overall usefulness of the presented methodology."

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Pashtunwali: A Set of Fake Cultural Rules

Anyone who deploys out to, or just studies, Afghanistan will undoubtedly spend at least a day learning about Pashtunwali (or "way of the Pashtuns").  Pashtunwali is allegedly ten rules that the Pashtun ethnic group live by and will die for.  The ten rules are

  • Hospitality 
  • Asylum 
  • Justice 
  • Bravery 
  • Loyalty 
  • Righteousness 
  • Trust in God 
  • Courage 
  • Protection of Women 
  • Honor

Pasthtunwali has been featured in movies like The Beast...



 ... by amateur historians who believe the ten rules tie the Pashtun with the Ten Lost Tribes of Israel...



... and by United States military officers, State Department officers, and academics who study Afghanistan all study, write about, and interact in Afghanistan on Pashtunwali terms.

The problem with all this is Pashtunwali is made up.  The first mention of it comes from British Lieutenant J. S. Broadfoot in 1880.  The ten rules bit was based off the Western understanding of the Ten Commandments.  Most likely ten was chosen to equate the code with the Ten Commandments.  Later on, Pashtun words were given for each rule to make Pashtunwali sound more native and less British academic.

In fact, here is an 1886 summary of Pashtunwali from Broadfoot in a journal from the Royal Geographic Society



Yet today we teach our war fighters, peace makers, and academics that Pashtuns are like slavish robots to Pashtunwali.  We ignore that Pashtunwali was a rule of thumb to understand rural Pashtuns in the late 1880s.  This ignores cultural evolution, the shift from traditional Islam to introductions of foreign Salafi forms of the faith, and the fact that Pashtun culture has been deeply impacted by forty-plus years of war.  Any captured soldier who screams for asylum (nanawatai) is probably going to be found without his head.

Here is a Google Ngram study of the use of "pashtunwali" in literature.  The mention in the 1960s merely referred back to the original 1880s use of the term.  It was only during the 1970s Communist-made turmoil that the romantic notion of Pashtunwali took off.  We have been suckers for the term since.


I greatly favor teaching culture and using culture in military operations.  However, we must not make the Western orientalist mistake of believing others are complete slaves to their culture.

Saturday, February 02, 2013

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Four - Final French Drive to Victory and Cartoon Propaganda Maps

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch One - The French Counterattack
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Two - Geography as a Barrier to the Islamists
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Three - French Advancing in the International War
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Four - Final French Drive to Victory and Cartoon Propaganda Maps

Disclaimer:  The staff of Geographic Travels supports France in its war against militant Islamists in Mali and elsewhere.  We remain uncertain and personally torn by the issue of Tuareg independence via an Azawad.

The French-Malian-International forces have captured the core of northern Mali (Azawad) with only a few small outposts in the far north left in rebel hands.  Ansar al Dine, other Islamists, and even non-fighting National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) forces have been swept aside and their cities have fallen to the French-led drive.  France will likely capture the last few outposts by the end of the week.

France24 map from 30 January
Secular Tuareg inability to keep Islamists out and the French decision to back the Malian government in an effort to reclaim the north has killed any dream for a separate and independent Azawad.

Cartoon/Propaganda Maps

I find cartoon and propaganda maps made during conflicts fascinating    The fact that a powerful message can be sent using a mixture of the cartographic and politics with few written words causes me to still ponder about the power of maps.  I have been collecting war cartoon propaganda maps from the 2008 Russia-Georgian War, the 2011 Libyan War, Japan's point-of-view during World War II, and sometimes guest blogger even managed to secure some Syrian Civil War cartoon propaganda maps.

In the case of Mali there are three categories: pro-French intervention, anti-intervention but not anti-France, and anti-France.  The pro-French intervention category can be broken down into three sub-categories: pro-Mali/pro-France, anti-Islamist, and anti-European inaction.

Pro-French Intervention


La Jeune Politique, an English-language French news website, has a rare pro-Mali map.  The leader of the military and the military installed-government smile.  Nowhere does one get the impression that the civilian government, admittedly a failure, was overthrown by the military.  Note the rebels only get a flag but no textual mention on the map.  Azawad is labelled "disputed area."

Heroic France stops terrorists from expanding into Niger's uranium fields.  While Ansar Dine was not going east, they were advancing south, Islamists in the past have expressed their desire to take over Niger.  Image from Facebook


Islamists take Africa hostage.  Cartoon by Imad Hajjaj

Cartoons for Peace shows the Islamist terrorist octopus having tentacles all over the region.  The long reaching, multi-tasking/threat octopus has been a propaganda tool for over 125 years.

France is alone while European help is just a mirage.  The Mirage is a pun as France's top jet is known as the Mirage.  Image by Chappatte

France at war while Europe plays. Image by Tom Janssen

Anti-Intervention but not anti-France

Another major theme of Malian war propaganda maps is showing the war as a mistake.  While these maps are against France's war, they are not anti-France.  The common theme is France does not known what it is getting itself into.  This mirrors the semi-famous May 5, 2003 The American Conservative magazine cover cartoon map showing that the United States was going to get stuck in an Iraqi quagmire after quickly winning the Iraq invasion.

France is shown as suck in the quicksand quagmire of Mali while hampered by its weak economy.  From the Kuwait Times

Cartoonharry draws France disrupting and getting stung by the wasps nest that is African civil wars

France is shown making the same mistake the United States did.  From the Korea Times

Anti-France

The final theme shows France in a negative light.  I have not been able to find any Islamist propaganda maps (what a unique field of political cartography, if its exists) but elements of the Muslim world are using the oppurtunity to make anti-France propaganda maps even if they do not openly support the Islamists.


Imad Hajjaj, who made the Islamist's take Africa hostage cartoon map, shows France as a tool of the United States against hapless Malians.  This is a great example of the constant flipping of sides in Arab street politics.

Iranian press agency FARS shows France feeding on the blood of Mali.  Iran is an enemy of al Qaeda but has supported the group on the side in efforts to hurt the West.

This will likely be the last Mali war map update.  However, if things greatly change on the ground we will resume this map series.

Monday, January 28, 2013

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Three - French Advancing in the International War


French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch One - The French Counterattack
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Two - Geography as a Barrier to the Islamists
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Three - French Advancing in the International War
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Four - Final French Drive to Victory and Cartoon Propaganda Maps


The French-led counterattack against Islamists in northern Mali, also known as Azawad, is so far succeeding with French and Malian forces recently taking the city of Gao.

The war has taken on an international component on multiple levels.  France is leading an international coalition of African armies and Western military logistical support.  Meanwhile, some of the Islamists rebels are international and have attacked locations in Algeria as retaliation for the French-led military action.

Le Monde and the Guardian have put together a good regional overview map which shows the conflict area, the range of the Tuareg, smuggling routes, arms flows coming out of Libya after the fall of Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, the political health of neighboring countries, and resource locations.

Click to Enlarge
The Times has put together a map showing the range of various allied west African Islamist terrorist groups.  Notice how far the attacked old fields in Algeria are from Mali.  The vast emptiness of the Sahara creates an ungoverned space which small groups of Islamists can quickly take over as a safe haven.  Due to the extreme lack of population, Islamists here do not really have to worry about creating a functioning country of their own and can focus on war.  It is only when Islamists took over Gao and Timbuktu, the two major cities of northern Mali, that they had to slow their advance and give time and money to governing.

Click to Enlarge
The France-based AFP created a map showing refugee outflow from the conflict zone.  About 150,000 Malians have fled from the north with 30,000 of those fleeing since the start of the French counterattack on January 11.  The Saharan Desert creates a natural boundary of the north which only 1,500 have decided to cross to seek shelter.


The AFP has made a great map showing contributions to the French-Mali alliance by various African and Western militaries.  African countries are giving additional boots on the ground who can hold territory as the French advance.  Meanwhile, Western contributions are light and restricted, except for Belgium, to offering transportation support.  Even though these countries do not seem to eager to get involved in another war, they are paying their respect to France through this support.  Of special note is the United Arab Emirates support to France.


The French-coalition seems to be working as the alliance is taking cities once held by the Islamists.  The assault for Timbuktu while the Gao front seems all but won.  Although it is too early to tell, it seems that the French are focusing on winning in the eastern front in order to cut off Islamist retreat into Niger, where the Islamists could link up with Boko Haram.  Islamist retreat from Timbuktu would be much harder as it would be forced through the desert in the south and east are cutoff.

From Facepunch



Wednesday, January 16, 2013

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Two - Geography as a Barrier to the Islamists


French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch One - The French Counterattack
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Two - Geography as a Barrier to the Islamists
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Three - French Advancing in the International War
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Four - Final French Drive to Victory and Cartoon Propaganda Maps


The Islamists who took over Azawad/northern Mali had two great advantages in terms of military geography: low population density and open desert terrain.  This allowed for lightening attacks and only required a limited amount of men to hold down large swaths of territory.

However, geography is against the Islamists as they try to take over the rest of Mali.  The southern half of Mali is much more densely populated and the terrain is a complex mix of grasslands, wetlands, hills, forests, and human-impacted land like agricultural fields.  The Islamist modern-day pickup truck cavalry's freedom of movement is denied by the changing terrain and the Islamist Tuareg are not use to having a large army capable of holding territory after initial victories.  Finally, the Tuareg are entering a ethnically mixed land which is unlikely to provide support and aid to mobile soldiers with weak supply lines.

Columbia University's map shows how southern Mali is much more dense than Azawad
USDA map shows that southern Mali terrain is much more diverse than the northern desert

The Atlas Jeune Afrique shows the Islamist Tuaregs are invading other ethnic groups' homelands unlike the Islamist conquering their own ethnic lands earlier this year

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch One - The French Counterattack


French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch One - The French Counterattack
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Two - Geography as a Barrier to the Islamists
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Three - French Advancing in the International War
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Four - Final French Drive to Victory and Cartoon Propaganda Maps


Geographic Travels has tracked the war in Mali since the founding of the self-declared Tuareg state, the Republic of Azawad, in April 2012.  Since then the blog has noted the quick rise and fall of the Islamic Republic of Azawad in May and then the fall of pro-Azawad independence MNLA to the al Qaeda-member Ansar al Dine and allies in September.

From fall up until the end of 2012 the Islamists were busy setting up an Islamic emirate in northern Mali with Sharia law and the destruction of the Sufi Muslim cultural landscape.  Early in January 2013 Ansar al Dine and its allies pushed out of the de facto Islamic emirate and into southern Mali.

France, which has long viewed Mali in its sphere of influence even after giving up Mali as a colony in 1960, has decided that losing Mali to Islamists is unacceptable and has launched a war to support the semi-civilian, military-propped up government.  Right now the war is in its opening stages with the French achieving mixed results.  In some places the Islamists' advanced has been stopped while in other sectors they continue to gain ground despite air strikes against forward deployed units.

Le Monde has produced a great overview map showing the range of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) as well as the once powerful Tuareg nationalist National Liberation Movement of Azawad (MNLA).  The current conflict zone is also highlighted.

Click to Enlarge
France24 has an English-language map showing the conflict zone as well the various Islamist and nationalists zones of control.


Finally there is a map going around the Arabic blogosphere showing the end result which many fear will happen if Ansar al Dine and other Islamists are able to take over Mali, which they have stated is their end goal unlike MNLA which just desire for an independent Azawad.


The war is becoming a French-led allied effort as the United States has promised aid and logistical support while Canada is sending one cargo plane for one week.

This is not a war for democracy as Wilsonian principles actually would call for Tuareg self-determination and Mali's military has a proven track record of launching coups against corrupt and/or incapable civilian governments.  This is a war to stop the Islamist wave that has been one of the Arab Spring's biggest spin-offs.  If Islamists can be stopped and destroyed in northern Mali then counter-terrorism efforts elsewhere can limit groups like AQIM.  If Islamists are successful in Mali then the whole region is at risk (as shown in the Arabic-language map above) as the revolutionary Islamist movement will seek to export itself elsewhere from its Afghanistan-in-Africa base.

Friday, November 16, 2012

Operation Pillar of Cloud Israel-Gaza War Map: One - Extended Hamas Rocket Threat Range

Several days ago I found an official Israel Defense Force map showing the range of known Hamas rocket ranges.  The most advanced rocket Hamas had, according to the map, was the upgraded grad rocket with a range of 48 kilometers (30 miles).  However, since the start of the Israel-Hamas War of 2012, Operation Pillar of Cloud, Hamas has been able to strike Tel Aviv at 60 kilometers (37 miles) away and Jerusalem at 70 kilometers (44 miles) away.

The below map was created by me and available for Google Earth download.  I added an extra buffer layer showing the new known 70 kilometer range.  Much more of Israel's population is at risk of being hit.  Fortunately, Israel's nuclear facility is over 10 kilometers (6 miles) still out of range, for now.


Sunday, October 21, 2012

Syria Civil War Maps Batch Ten- October 2012

Another guest post by FSSP

Libyan War Maps 
Syrian Arab Spring Protest Maps - Batch One
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Two - Syrian Air Defenses 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Three - Twitter and News Update Maps 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Four - The Soccer Map  
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Five - Ceasefire Violations
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Six - Houla   
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Seven - June 2012    
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Eight - Battle of Damascus 
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Nine - September 2012 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Ten - October 2012 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Eleven - Propaganda Maps
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Twelve - First Quarter 2013

Syria Civil War Maps Batch Thirteen - Chemical Weapons Attack?
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Fourteen - Israel Strikes Again
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Fifteen - Second Quarter 2013
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Sixteen - The Coming Western Intervention
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Seventeen - Al Qaedastan in Iraq and Syria

Cartographer Bjoern created a Google Maps Maps which shows downed Syrian Arab Republic (SAR; pro-Assad government) air force jets and helicopters.  Bjoern recognizes not all the reports are verifiable.  It clear from the map that most of heavy fighting is in the north of the country.  Interestingly, this mirrors the heavy rivalry the French encouraged between Damascus and Aleppo during the Mandate.


View Syria: downed aerial vehicles. in a larger map

A BBC map making the e-mail rounds shows the border towns of Akcakale, Turkey and Tel Abyad, Syria.  It was from Tel Abyad that SAR forces first fired into Turkey earlier this month.  It is something to see how close the fighting must have been.


A growing side theater of the Syrian Civil War is the reigniting of conflict between the Turkey and the Marxist-nationalist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).  A McClatchy News Service graphic sourced with Turkish Army data states Turkey has declared part of Syria a no-go area.  It will be interesting to see if Turkey enforces this ban.


Analysis Intelligence created an interactive map showing Jihadist group activities in Syria by region and time.  Sadly, the al Qaeda in Iraq front group al Nusra Front, which has openly stated its desire to spread jihad in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, is growing.


Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Lara Logan: We are Being Lied to About the War in Afghanistan and al Qaeda

A long Catholicgauze rant.  Normal geography blogging will resume tomorrow

I heard ghosts of whispers while I was in Afghanistan.  I could not confirm these details but they were very troubling to me.

At an Indian restaurant (the restaurant was meant to attract Afghans who developed a taste for Indian food while in exile as refugees as well as Westerners who enjoined Indian food) several truck drivers were sitting near us were talking.  The interpreter I worked with said they were talking about Arabs claiming to be al Qaeda who were running road blocks in the open along the main highway which connected all four major Afghan cities.

An Afghan newspaper published in Kabul for the business-class reported al Qaeda, not the Taliban nor the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, was reestablishing bases in Nuristan province.  The article stated that al Qaeda viewed Nuristan safer than Pakistan because there were less drone strikes and the American presence was weak in the mountainous province.


View Larger Map

Finally, many soldiers told me either first or second hand stories of seeing women in Arab dresses vice standard Afghan clothing walking around markets without men.  If these stories were true, then it implies foreign fighters, possibly al Qaeda, felt Afghanistan was so safe that they were bringing their wives along.  In Afghanistan, only women who knew they were untouchable and feared would dare walk out to a public place without a male relative.

I never knew what to make of such stories.  However, they all added together to paint a picture of slow moving defeat.  If al Qaeda were able to establish itself, then the war would be a waste.

Today the reaction to news about Afghanistan is shocking.  Americans are being killed by infiltrators and traitors in the Afghan army and police.  We passed the "grim milestone" of 2,000 military killed.  Yet unlike Iraq, where the press was eager to point out the bad news and it became political capital, neither party is discussing Afghanistan.  It is a war America wants to forget.  President George W Bush's promise of "We will not tire, we will not falter, we will not fail" is being turned into a joke by the American people.

The press seems to go along with this.  In Sunday's Washington Post described how the war was "winding down".  Elsewhere the press portrays the message that with bin Laden death al Qaeda died as well.

Thankfully, journalist Lara Logan has pointed out that most of what Americans are being told is wrong (in my less than humble opinion).  If she is right, and I fear she is, a new storm is coming which poses dangers even larger than a 9/11. 



Here powerful point can be summed up by this portion of her speech
“Our way of life is under attack and if you think that’s government propaganda, if you think that’s nonsense, if you think that’s warmongering, you’re not listening to what the people who are fighting you say about this fight.”
“In your arrogance, you think you write the script, but you don’t. There’s two sides and we don’t dictate the terms. In fact after eleven years of war in Afghanistan, we’re rushing for the exits as fast as we can, not only do we not dictate the terms, but we have less power to dictate anything on the world stage.”
“Ambassador Ryan Crocker said, ‘We’ve killed all the slow and stupid ones. The ones that are left are more committed and they didn’t become any kinder or gentler in the last eleven years.’
“‘Another thing he said. We think we’ve won the campaign and they haven’t even begun to fight.’”
“If you fail to identify the ideological component to this fight, if you fail to identify what your enemy is really fighting for, if you lie about who they really are, I don’t see how you can possibly have the right strategy.”
“There’s a narrative coming out of Washington, much of it driven by Pakistani lobbying money and by Taliban apologists. One of my favorite things to read about is how the Taliban today is so unlike the Taliban of 2001, they’re a more moderate, gentler kinder Taliban who just can’t wait to see women in the workplace occupying an equal role in society and great economic prosperity for all of Afghanistan and they don’t really want to take us back 3,000 years into that terrible place I witnessed.”
“And when I look at what’s happening in Libya, this big song and dance, whether this was a terrorist attack or a protest, and you just want to scream for god’s sake, are you kidding me, the last time we were attacked like this was the USS Cole which was a prelude to the 1998 embassy bombings which was a prelude to 9/11. And you’re sending FBI to investigate. I hope you’re sending in your best clandestine warriors who will go in to exact revenge and let the world know that the United States will not be attacked on its own soil, that its ambassadors will not be murdered and that the United States will not do nothing about it.”

The Arab Civil Wars are likely to get even hotter and al Qaeda is viewed by many as a fighter against oppressive regimes.  While the US will push for leaders to step down and bomb Libya, Arabs who are not militant Islamists see how al Qaeda has been on the ground in Libya, Syria, and Yemen.  Americans want to disengage from the Greater Middle East and rebuild the economy at home.  However, we have involved ourselves deeply and now the storm will not let us go.

Friday, September 07, 2012

Douentza's Fall is Azawad's Fall

Azawad, the de facto independent republic and de facto newest country in the world, is about to fade into the sands of the Sahara.  The strategic town of Douentza, who's fall in April created a border and allowed for rebels to declare independence, was captured by Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MOJWA) this past weekend.  The town was previously held by an Azawad-allied militia.  MOJWA's victory is a major defeat for those who desired Azawad's independence. 

MOJWA is an Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and is allied to Ansar Dine.  Both of these militant Islamist groups seek to rule all of Mali, not just the Tureg north, and impose Sharia law.  While Azawad forces have been key in winning battles in northern Mali against government forces, the Islamists move into the towns claiming to be allies but quickly impose their own rule.  The cities of Gao and Timbuktu have been slowly but surely purged of secular elements as the Salafist Islamists destroy Sufi Muslim shrines and impose Sharia law.  Now there is no significant city or town in the self-proclaimed Azawad under complete secular militia control.

Azawad's inability to control its own claimed and conquered territory is a sure sign to the world that the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad's efforts are not worth backing.  Whether it takes a long covert war or an all out Malian offensive, Azawad will become just northern Mali yet again.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Syrian Civil War Byproduct - A New Kurdish Republic?

Guest post by FSSP

There have been multiple attempts in the twentieth century to establish an independent Kurdistan in different countries within the Kurdistan realm between Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and the former Soviet Union.  Despite initial successes in controlling ungoverned spaces and establishing the framework of a state, each effort was eliminated by the home state.

1922-24
Kingdom of Kurdistan - Iraq
1923-30 Red Kurdistan - USSR, Azerbaijan (currently within the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic), dissolved into Azerbaijan due to Soviet ethnic geopolitics.
1927-30 Republic of Ararat - Turkey
1946-47 Republic of Kurdistan - Iran
1992 Lachin Kurdish Republic - Azerbaijan (currently within the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic)

From 1978 to today the communist Kurdistan Workers Party has been fighting a guerrilla and terrorist campaign against Turkey to break off Turkish Kurdistan.  They have not declared their own independent country.

The cycle of failed states came somewhat to end with Iraqi Kurdistan gaining de facto independence under the United States' no-fly zone in 1991.  Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 ensured de facto independence for Iraqi Kurdistan continued.  Since then elections have been held multiple times, infrastructure has been built, and an unique identity has formed in the region.  The Iraqi Kurdish government known as the Kurdistan Regional Government  even worked with the Turkish military in coordinating efforts against the Kurdistan Workers Party militias.

Now a new Kurdish state may be in formation.  The Kurdish Democratic Union Party, pro-Syrian Arab Republic and aligned with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party, and the pro-rebel Kurdistan National Council are jointly taking control of northeast Syria.  This area is mostly Kurdish and has been abanonded by the Syrian Arab Republic and there is no Free Syrian Army presence.

The geography blog Political Geography Now created a zone of control map of Syria which shows places under control by the nascent Kurdish proto-government.
Political Geography Now's map of Syria.  Blue dots are under Kurdish control.

There are pictures online showing the Kurdish national flag (also used by Iraqi Kurdistan) and the Democratic Union Party flag flying from captured Syrian Arab Republic buildings.

Kurdish flags over a school.  Photo from Transnational Middle-East Observer

No one yet knows how the Syrian Civil War will end.  However, no matter what the outcome the winner will have to deal with a de facto independent Syrian Kurdistan.  Unlike Iraqi Kurdistan which was moderated by the United States, Syrian Kurdistan will be run by forces allied with Marxist terrorists who have an expansionist agenda.  Either Turkey would likely become involved and crush this Kurdistan like the others or what was northeastern Syria will likely serve as a base for attacks into Turkey.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Seven - June 2012

Many thanks to FSSP for making this post.

Libyan War Maps 
Syrian Arab Spring Protest Maps - Batch One
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Two - Syrian Air Defenses 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Three - Twitter and News Update Maps 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Four - The Soccer Map  
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Five - Ceasefire Violations
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Six - Houla   
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Seven - June 2012    
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Eight - Battle of Damascus 
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Nine - September 2012 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Ten - October 2012 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Eleven - Propaganda Maps
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Twelve - First Quarter 2013

Syria Civil War Maps Batch Thirteen - Chemical Weapons Attack?
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Fourteen - Israel Strikes Again
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Fifteen - Second Quarter 2013
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Sixteen - The Coming Western Intervention
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Seventeen - Al Qaedastan in Iraq and Syria

The blog Political Geography has produced their own map of the Syrian Civil War showing areas of Free Syrian Army activity.  Note how there is little Free Syrian Army activity along the western coast.  This is the homeland of the Alawites (which President Assad is a member of) and Melkite Catholic Christians.  There are rumors that the Alawites and Melkites will establish a rump state if Sunni Islamists takeover the rest of Syria.


The anti-Syrian Arab Republic (Assad Regime) group Syrian Uprising 2011 Information Center has been producing daily violence and new media reports maps for months.  The map for June 21 is below.  Blue markers represent protests, red fighting, yellow striking, and green is miscellaneous.


View Syria - Thursday 21/06/2012 in a larger map

A Google Maps mapmaker is creating a map showing the general locations of new media video reporters in Syria.  It is a work in progress and comments are apparently encouraged.


View Syria Streams in a larger map

The organization Women Under Siege is hosting a crowd sourced map documenting claims of sexual violence against women in Syria.  Catholicgauze once told me that rape is a "powerful" weapon in war because if an opponent's wife is mentally and spiritually in disarray then the opponent soldier cannot fully commit himself on the battlefield.  He said mobbish army commanders prefer soldiers engage in rape because it desensitizes soldiers and makes total war easier to conduct.