Communist China New Air Defense Map Stakes a Claim to the Senkaku Islands

The People's Republic of China, the Republic of China, and Japan all lay claim to the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu in PRC/Tiaoyutai in ROC).


View Larger Map

The islands are part of the chess game going on in the China Seas.  However, until now there have been only small talk of indirect threats.  Now, the PRC has issued an air defense map in which the PRC claims it has the right to shoot down foreign aircraft.

This is a very dangerous development.  These islands are administered by Japan and it will not stand by as its territory to slowly cut apart.  The PRC's land claims nearly lead to war against the ROC, twice in the 1950s and once in the 1990s.  The risk of conflict is approaching the same level.

Detail of Churchill's War Map

The British Imperial War Museum released a detail of the map Prime Minister Winston Churchill's staff used to map threats to shipping during World War II.  One can clearly see how the beautiful map was used via push pins to provide a complex understanding of the maritime situation.

Image from the Imperial War Museum

Spatial awareness has always been key to strategic and operational planning.  What I think has been lost to a certain extent is the artistic element in military cartography.  The artistic side of military maps has been sacrificed to computer-based spartan efficiency.  In Iraq and Afghanistan most of the maps I used were on the computer and the few that I printed out were simple GIS/Google Maps marked up with my pen.  The last day of my Iraq deployment I took all my map printouts and burned them in a bonfire in a little no-named wahdi.  I did not feel an emotional/artistic attachment to the maps, something that is extremely rare to me.  In fact cannot think of any War on Terrorism-examples of a field map which matches the beauty of military maps from World War II, the Civil War, or the Revolutionary War.

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Four - Final French Drive to Victory and Cartoon Propaganda Maps

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch One - The French Counterattack
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Two - Geography as a Barrier to the Islamists
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Three - French Advancing in the International War
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Four - Final French Drive to Victory and Cartoon Propaganda Maps

Disclaimer:  The staff of Geographic Travels supports France in its war against militant Islamists in Mali and elsewhere.  We remain uncertain and personally torn by the issue of Tuareg independence via an Azawad.

The French-Malian-International forces have captured the core of northern Mali (Azawad) with only a few small outposts in the far north left in rebel hands.  Ansar al Dine, other Islamists, and even non-fighting National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) forces have been swept aside and their cities have fallen to the French-led drive.  France will likely capture the last few outposts by the end of the week.

France24 map from 30 January

Secular Tuareg inability to keep Islamists out and the French decision to back the Malian government in an effort to reclaim the north has killed any dream for a separate and independent Azawad.

Cartoon/Propaganda Maps

I find cartoon and propaganda maps made during conflicts fascinating    The fact that a powerful message can be sent using a mixture of the cartographic and politics with few written words causes me to still ponder about the power of maps.  I have been collecting war cartoon propaganda maps from the 2008 Russia-Georgian War, the 2011 Libyan War, Japan's point-of-view during World War II, and sometimes guest blogger even managed to secure some Syrian Civil War cartoon propaganda maps.

In the case of Mali there are three categories: pro-French intervention, anti-intervention but not anti-France, and anti-France.  The pro-French intervention category can be broken down into three sub-categories: pro-Mali/pro-France, anti-Islamist, and anti-European inaction.

Pro-French Intervention

La Jeune Politique, an English-language French news website, has a rare pro-Mali map.  The leader of the military and the military installed-government smile.  Nowhere does one get the impression that the civilian government, admittedly a failure, was overthrown by the military.  Note the rebels only get a flag but no textual mention on the map.  Azawad is labelled "disputed area."

Heroic France stops terrorists from expanding into Niger's uranium fields.  While Ansar Dine was not going east, they were advancing south, Islamists in the past have expressed their desire to take over Niger.  Image from Facebook

Islamists take Africa hostage.  Cartoon by Imad Hajjaj

Cartoons for Peace shows the Islamist terrorist octopus having tentacles all over the region.  The long reaching, multi-tasking/threat octopus has been a propaganda tool for over 125 years.

France is alone while European help is just a mirage.  The Mirage is a pun as France's top jet is known as the Mirage.  Image by Chappatte

France at war while Europe plays. Image by Tom Janssen

Anti-Intervention but not anti-France

Another major theme of Malian war propaganda maps is showing the war as a mistake.  While these maps are against France's war, they are not anti-France.  The common theme is France does not known what it is getting itself into.  This mirrors the semi-famous May 5, 2003 The American Conservative magazine cover cartoon map showing that the United States was going to get stuck in an Iraqi quagmire after quickly winning the Iraq invasion.

France is shown as suck in the quicksand quagmire of Mali while hampered by its weak economy.  From the Kuwait Times

Cartoonharry draws France disrupting and getting stung by the wasps nest that is African civil wars

France is shown making the same mistake the United States did.  From the Korea Times

Anti-France

The final theme shows France in a negative light.  I have not been able to find any Islamist propaganda maps (what a unique field of political cartography, if its exists) but elements of the Muslim world are using the oppurtunity to make anti-France propaganda maps even if they do not openly support the Islamists.

Imad Hajjaj, who made the Islamist's take Africa hostage cartoon map, shows France as a tool of the United States against hapless Malians.  This is a great example of the constant flipping of sides in Arab street politics.

Iranian press agency FARS shows France feeding on the blood of Mali.  Iran is an enemy of al Qaeda but has supported the group on the side in efforts to hurt the West.

This will likely be the last Mali war map update.  However, if things greatly change on the ground we will resume this map series.

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Three - French Advancing in the International War

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch One - The French Counterattack
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Two - Geography as a Barrier to the Islamists
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Three - French Advancing in the International War
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Four - Final French Drive to Victory and Cartoon Propaganda Maps


The French-led counterattack against Islamists in northern Mali, also known as Azawad, is so far succeeding with French and Malian forces recently taking the city of Gao.

The war has taken on an international component on multiple levels.  France is leading an international coalition of African armies and Western military logistical support.  Meanwhile, some of the Islamists rebels are international and have attacked locations in Algeria as retaliation for the French-led military action.

Le Monde and the Guardian have put together a good regional overview map which shows the conflict area, the range of the Tuareg, smuggling routes, arms flows coming out of Libya after the fall of Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, the political health of neighboring countries, and resource locations.

Click to Enlarge

The Times has put together a map showing the range of various allied west African Islamist terrorist groups.  Notice how far the attacked old fields in Algeria are from Mali.  The vast emptiness of the Sahara creates an ungoverned space which small groups of Islamists can quickly take over as a safe haven.  Due to the extreme lack of population, Islamists here do not really have to worry about creating a functioning country of their own and can focus on war.  It is only when Islamists took over Gao and Timbuktu, the two major cities of northern Mali, that they had to slow their advance and give time and money to governing.

Click to Enlarge

The France-based AFP created a map showing refugee outflow from the conflict zone.  About 150,000 Malians have fled from the north with 30,000 of those fleeing since the start of the French counterattack on January 11.  The Saharan Desert creates a natural boundary of the north which only 1,500 have decided to cross to seek shelter.

The AFP has made a great map showing contributions to the French-Mali alliance by various African and Western militaries.  African countries are giving additional boots on the ground who can hold territory as the French advance.  Meanwhile, Western contributions are light and restricted, except for Belgium, to offering transportation support.  Even though these countries do not seem to eager to get involved in another war, they are paying their respect to France through this support.  Of special note is the United Arab Emirates support to France.

The French-coalition seems to be working as the alliance is taking cities once held by the Islamists.  The assault for Timbuktu while the Gao front seems all but won.  Although it is too early to tell, it seems that the French are focusing on winning in the eastern front in order to cut off Islamist retreat into Niger, where the Islamists could link up with Boko Haram.  Islamist retreat from Timbuktu would be much harder as it would be forced through the desert in the south and east are cutoff.

From Facepunch

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Two - Geography as a Barrier to the Islamists

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch One - The French Counterattack
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Two - Geography as a Barrier to the Islamists
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Three - French Advancing in the International War
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Four - Final French Drive to Victory and Cartoon Propaganda Maps


The Islamists who took over Azawad/northern Mali had two great advantages in terms of military geography: low population density and open desert terrain.  This allowed for lightening attacks and only required a limited amount of men to hold down large swaths of territory.

However, geography is against the Islamists as they try to take over the rest of Mali.  The southern half of Mali is much more densely populated and the terrain is a complex mix of grasslands, wetlands, hills, forests, and human-impacted land like agricultural fields.  The Islamist modern-day pickup truck cavalry's freedom of movement is denied by the changing terrain and the Islamist Tuareg are not use to having a large army capable of holding territory after initial victories.  Finally, the Tuareg are entering a ethnically mixed land which is unlikely to provide support and aid to mobile soldiers with weak supply lines.

Columbia University's map shows how southern Mali is much more dense than Azawad

USDA map shows that southern Mali terrain is much more diverse than the northern desert

The Atlas Jeune Afrique shows the Islamist Tuaregs are invading other ethnic groups' homelands unlike the Islamist conquering their own ethnic lands earlier this year

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch One - The French Counterattack

French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch One - The French Counterattack
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Two - Geography as a Barrier to the Islamists
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Three - French Advancing in the International War
French-Islamist Mali War Maps Batch Four - Final French Drive to Victory and Cartoon Propaganda Maps

Geographic Travels has tracked the war in Mali since the founding of the self-declared Tuareg state, the Republic of Azawad, in April 2012.  Since then the blog has noted the quick rise and fall of the Islamic Republic of Azawad in May and then the fall of pro-Azawad independence MNLA to the al Qaeda-member Ansar al Dine and allies in September.

From fall up until the end of 2012 the Islamists were busy setting up an Islamic emirate in northern Mali with Sharia law and the destruction of the Sufi Muslim cultural landscape.  Early in January 2013 Ansar al Dine and its allies pushed out of the de facto Islamic emirate and into southern Mali.

France, which has long viewed Mali in its sphere of influence even after giving up Mali as a colony in 1960, has decided that losing Mali to Islamists is unacceptable and has launched a war to support the semi-civilian, military-propped up government.  Right now the war is in its opening stages with the French achieving mixed results.  In some places the Islamists' advanced has been stopped while in other sectors they continue to gain ground despite air strikes against forward deployed units.

Le Monde has produced a great overview map showing the range of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) as well as the once powerful Tuareg nationalist National Liberation Movement of Azawad (MNLA).  The current conflict zone is also highlighted.

Click to Enlarge

France24 has an English-language map showing the conflict zone as well the various Islamist and nationalists zones of control.

Finally there is a map going around the Arabic blogosphere showing the end result which many fear will happen if Ansar al Dine and other Islamists are able to take over Mali, which they have stated is their end goal unlike MNLA which just desire for an independent Azawad.

The war is becoming a French-led allied effort as the United States has promised aid and logistical support while Canada is sending one cargo plane for one week.

This is not a war for democracy as Wilsonian principles actually would call for Tuareg self-determination and Mali's military has a proven track record of launching coups against corrupt and/or incapable civilian governments.  This is a war to stop the Islamist wave that has been one of the Arab Spring's biggest spin-offs.  If Islamists can be stopped and destroyed in northern Mali then counter-terrorism efforts elsewhere can limit groups like AQIM.  If Islamists are successful in Mali then the whole region is at risk (as shown in the Arabic-language map above) as the revolutionary Islamist movement will seek to export itself elsewhere from its Afghanistan-in-Africa base.

Operation Pillar of Cloud Israel-Gaza War Map: One - Extended Hamas Rocket Threat Range

Several days ago I found an official Israel Defense Force map showing the range of known Hamas rocket ranges.  The most advanced rocket Hamas had, according to the map, was the upgraded grad rocket with a range of 48 kilometers (30 miles).  However, since the start of the Israel-Hamas War of 2012, Operation Pillar of Cloud, Hamas has been able to strike Tel Aviv at 60 kilometers (37 miles) away and Jerusalem at 70 kilometers (44 miles) away.

The below map was created by me and available for Google Earth download.  I added an extra buffer layer showing the new known 70 kilometer range.  Much more of Israel's population is at risk of being hit.  Fortunately, Israel's nuclear facility is over 10 kilometers (6 miles) still out of range, for now.

Cuban Missile Crisis Military Geography Briefing

On October 14, 1962 an American U2 spy plane flew over the island of Cuba and took photos of Soviet military-built missile facilities.  The United States saw the facilities as part of a Soviet first strike operation.   The Soviets meanwhile saw no difference between their desires for nuclear weapons in Cuba and American nuclear weapons already in Turkey, which border the Soviet Union.  The tension quickly built up between the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics to the point each side nearly started World War III.

Thankfully war was averted though few Americans fully understood what occurred.  American President John Kennedy sought to explain the situation and dispel beliefs that the Soviets had kept weapons hidden on the island.  To do so the Defense Intelligence Agency's John Hughes went on television on February 6, 1963 and used geographic tools such as maps and photo interpretation to explain the Soviet buildup, threat, and withdrawal.

Below are eight clips from the briefing. 

















Today the use of photo interpretation and maps to investigate non-geography oriented subjects is common place. For example public agencies in charge of wildlife management, fire control, military planning use these techniques.  Even private groups like those interested in real estate development or legal issues with property ownership will study maps and recent imagery to obtain on the ground facts photos give as well as other, less visible factors maps describe.

The Military Geography which Led to General Lee's First Invasion of the North

View Larger Map

Stephen's Sears Landscape Turned Red: The Battle of Antietam does a great job explaining how military geography influenced Confederate General Robert Lee to invade the Union in 1862.  This invasion led to his first setback, the Battle of Antietam (Battle of Sharpsburg to Southerns) on September 17, 1862 and gave Union President Abraham Lincoln the strategic victory he needed to issue the Emancipation Proclamation.

In late August 1862, General Lee defeated the Northern commander of the Army of the Potomac, General John Pope, at the Battle of Second Bull Run (Second Manassas) outside the town of Manassass, Virginia. General Pope's defeat forced the Union army back to Washington, DC while the Confederates held northern Virginia.  Three factors weighed heavily in Lee's mind: the fall harvest, Union congressional elections in November, and the need for another major victory to get the United Kingdom and France to recognize the Confederate States of America.

Lee had five choices on what to do

Stay put:  Lee could have held his ground and kept the Union army in check with the threat of attack while digging in and therefore forcing another disaster Union assault.  However, to do this would require the Southern Army of Northern Virginia to feed off the all ready strained farmlands of the region.  This would prevent a successful harvest and deny Southern civilians much needed food.

March east and attack Washington, DC:  Lee could have moved his forces east to capture the Union capital and give the Confederacy a political victory which would guarantee international recognition.  However, Lee knew the ring of forts around Washington had the best heavy weapons of the time and that any assault would have most likely end in failure.  A significant failure would invite an Union drive to capture the southern capital of Richmond, Virginia before the winter.  Instead of winning the war, an attack to the east could have lost it.

March south and defend Richmond:  Lee could have instead marched south to defend the capital of Richmond while resupplying and boosting the army with new volunteers.  However, this would abandon hard fought ground north of Fredricksburg, Virginia and therefore cripple morale.

March west into the Shenandoah Valley.  In between the Appalachian Mountains in western Virginia is the Shenandoah Valley.  The valley was a key breadbasket for much of the South.  Lee could have feed his troops here, captured Union strongholds in future West Virginia, and opened up a new front and then possibly link up with troops fighting to capture pro-Union Kentucky.  However, Lee feared taxing the farms' harvest with his army's presence and realized he would be out of range of Richmond-based supplies.  Finally, this would as well allow Union forces to recapture northern Virginia and harm morale.

March north into Union states and seek to destroy the Northern Army:  This is what Lee did.  Lee sought a victory which would destroy the Union's army fighting ability for the rest of the year, cost the Republican Party the congressional elections, allow Southern farmers to have a successful harvest, and gain international recognition for the Confederacy.  Instead, Lee caused the bloodiest single-day battle in American history with 23,000 casualties on both sides. 

September 2012 Travel Photo: Bloody Lane at Antietam

The above photo is the back side of Bloody Lane at Antietam battlefield outside Sharpsburg, Maryland.  During the noon hours of September 17, 1862, Confederate (South) forces used a sunken road to act as a natural trench against wave after wave of Union (North) attacks.  It was not until the third assault that Union troops were able to outflank the defenders, and shoot down into the road.  The sunken road, which was the protector of Southern forces, turned into a death trap.  By 1:00 the road was full of bodies.

A video tour of the Sunken Road by VideoHistoryToday

The sunken road provided a great blind spot for Confederate forces.  While Union forces were forced to fight on top of the ridge in the background, exposing their full bodies, Confederates were mostly hidden.  The above photo has a 6 feet 4 inches tall man standing inside the natural trench.  Below is the same man standing outside the sunken road.

Video documentary about the full Battle of Antietam including the Bloody Lane

Geography Tool Sets of Pattern of Life and Socio-Cultural Analysis Being Used to Target Terrorists Like Joseph Kony

Matt Rosenberg twitted a short article about how the geographic tool sets "pattern of life" and "socio-cultural analysis" are being used to target Lord's Resistance Army leader Joseph Kony.

The two tool sets are combine unique aspects of geography, spatial knowledge and regional knowledge, to assist in the defeat of terrorists.

Pattern of Life:  Pattern of life is the spatial study of where a target operates.  Places where the target eats, sleeps, works, shops, conduct operations, flees to, etc are considered.  When one can figure out where the target is at certain times, one can make analytic judgements of how the target travels and where the target will be at certain times.  If the target appears in an usually place at an unusual time then one can tell something is amiss with the target and prepare counter measures.  Also, creating judgements of where a target is allows for one to dismiss false intelligence designed to confuse pursuers.

Regional Geography:  Regional geography is the study of regions, whether a neighborhood or whole civilization-zones.  When used in targeting, the study of areas around the target allows one to see similarities and differences between where the target has and has not gone.  If one cannot find a target in the known pattern of life then regional geography can be used to find similar regions where the target could have likely gone to.

Pattern of life has long been used by police and military to find targets, whether the criminal returned to his mother's house or the terrorist went to his usual mosque on Fridays.  Meanwhile, regional geography has long been used in police work such as when the New York City Police Department mapped ethnic neighborhoods to assess where Communist activity would be in the early 1900s.  However, regional geography has only recently arisen in use with the military's investment into cultural geography.  This has been controversial in both academia, leftist academics who do not want their studies associated with the military, and within the military itself, many generals viewing cultural geography as a soft "feel good" "science".

Then Major General Michael Flynn, United States Army,  wrote about the need for more regional geography knowledge to aid the war in Afghanistan.  His advancement up the ranks and the use of both these tool sets in Africa implies that the military will continue to utilize geography in operations against terrorists like Kony.

Vulnerable Geography: Iranian Prodaganda Map of American Military Bases in the Middle East

See also Israel's Point-of-View of Vulnerable Geography 

An activist hoping to avoid war with Iran sent me a map proportioning to be of American military bases in the Middle East.  The map, below, was from anti-war, paleoconservative, racist Lew Rockwell.  A submitter noted "Could this be a reason they hate us?"

The map makes it look like Iran has a vulnerable geography surrounded by American military forces.  The impression many get from the map is how Iran is under siege.

However, this is meant to be a map of power.  First off, the map was made by Iranians to show American military installations in range of Iranian missiles (American link/original Iranian link).  Secondly, the map is a lie.  The map maker claims an American military presence where there are none or maybe just a liaison officer.  There once was a military presence in Iraq but the draw down closed most bases.  Americans left Saudi Arabia in the early 2000s.  I have no idea why but there is a claimed presence on Socotra, Yemen.  Also, Pakistani military bases are hardly American.

This map is a great example of how one map can be interpreted different ways depending on the country/politics of the viewer.

Syria Civil War Maps Batch Three - Twitter and News Update Maps

Libyan War Maps 
Syrian Arab Spring Protest Maps - Batch One
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Two - Syrian Air Defenses 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Three - Twitter and News Update Maps 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Four - The Soccer Map  
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Five - Ceasefire Violations
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Six - Houla   
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Seven - June 2012    
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Eight - Battle of Damascus 
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Nine - September 2012 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Ten - October 2012 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Eleven - Propaganda Maps
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Twelve - First Quarter 2013
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Thirteen - Chemical Weapons Attack?
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Fourteen - Israel Strikes Again
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Fifteen - Second Quarter 2013
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Sixteen - The Coming Western Intervention
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Seventeen - Al Qaedastan in Iraq and Syria

As the Syrian Civil War intensifies with the Battle of Homs and international stalemate instant news updates are becoming must for intelligence analysts, news analysts, policy makers, and the interested public.

Mibazaar has created a map showing Twitter messages posted with the hastag #Syria from "allegedly" a 400 mile (~650 kilometer) radius of Damascus.  I say allegedly because people can falsify their location and I have seen several Tweets from Bahrain which is over 950 miles (over 1,500 kilometers) from Damascus.

Meanwhile al Jazeera has a frequently updated map of recent developments from Homs.  The map is reposted below.

View Homs - Recent developments in a larger map

Military Geography of the Strait of Hormuz and the Allied Coalition

The British Daily Mail has a great infographic showing the Strait of Hormuz, the regional geography, the oil output of the various countries which use the strait (about 30% of the world's output though not all their oil goes through the strait), and the America-British-French naval coalition which is currently there to ensure Iran does not close the strait.

Click to enlarge.  From Daily Mail.

Of interesting note, the United States led an international alliance into the 1990-91 Gulf War to prevent Saddam Hussein from controlling less than seven percent of the world's oil when he annexed Kuwait.  If Iraq would have been able to take Saudi Arabia's oil fields in the "doomsday scenario" he would have controlled twenty percent of the world's oil output.  Iran currently has five percent of the world's oil output and could control twenty-five to thirty percent of the world's output by closing the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz is now a flashpoint with Iran trying to demonstrate its control of the Persian Gulf with the Allied Coalition trying to keep trade with the Arab Oil states open.

From The Daily Star of Lebanon

Israel Preparing to Resettle Syrian Alawites in the Golan Heights

Israeli Chief of Staff Benny Gantz said that Israel is preparing to resettle potential Alawite refugees in the Golan Heights, the valuable highlands which oversee much of northern Israel and the Syrian capital of Damascus.  If this plan is true and it is implemented then it will be one of the most odd, complex geopolitical schemes in Middle East history.

For background, Alawites are a religious-tribal minority in Syria comprising ten percent or so of the country's population.  They believe Ali, cousin of Muhammad, was God incarnate.  They also believe Jesus was God in the Trinity and Alawites practice Communion as the body and blood of Christ.  Orthodox Islamic scholars have traditional classified Alawites as a Christian sect, a Shia heresy, or a pagan religion that disguises itself in the majority religion.  Some modern scholars have declared it a strange sect of Islam, but there have been charges that these scholars are merely making propaganda for governments which desire closer relations with Syria.  However, a recent New Republic article claims that in the past decades Alawite religion has been Sunnized by the Alawite-controlled Syrian government. 

The Alawites have run Syria under the Assad family since the 1970s.  The regime has been secular, Arab (national) Socialist which regards religion as more of a private matter if not a threat when mixed with politics.  The battle between the Arab Sunni majority and the minority alliance of the Alawites and various Catholic/Orthodox Christians has been bloody before.  The late 1970s and early 1980s saw the Muslim Brotherhood rebellion which was brutally crushed by the brutal assault on Hama, the "Islamic capital" of Syria, which killed somewhere between 10,000 and 40,000 people.  Now, the Arab Spring wave has reached Syria and the old battle between Sunnis (the anti-government forces) and the minority alliance (pro-government) has reached the point of civil war.

The fear of ethnic displacement is very high in Syria, much higher even in post-Arab Spring Egypt.  The fear of ethnic displacement comes from the probability of the victimized Sunni Islamists seeking revenge on the Alawites if the Assad government falls.  The crackdowns against the Sunni Islamists in the past were so harsh that Syrian Muslim Brotherhood propaganda commonly features statements along the lines of "kill all Alawites" and attacks against Alawite civilians has become a new disturbing trend in Syria.

So as a bit of a propaganda coup, and perhaps geopolitical smartness, Israel is making it known that it is willing to resettle Alawites in the Golan Heights.  The propaganda coup portion comes from the fact Syria's Alawite-controlled government has been demanding the return of the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in the Six-Day War, for decades.  It would be deeply ironic for the Israel-annexed Golan Heights to be the Alawites' safe haven from Sunni Syria.

The intelligence of this geopolitical move is straight-forward: entrenching the Golan Heights with an anti-Syrian population.  Currently the Golan Heights' population is about 40,000 Druze (who in the past have been pro-Assad Syria and part of the minority alliance; however, they have been silent during the current Arab Spring uprising), 16,500 Israeli Jews, and about 2,000 Sunni Muslims (who would have good reason to support a Sunni Syria).  There are about three-and-a-half million Alawites in Syria.  Even if just one percent were to move to the Golan Heights that would be 35,000 new settlers who would be willing to make a pragmatic agreement with Israel to prevent Syria from retaking the Golan Heights.

It is a little bit of a leap though to assume that Alawites would first flee to Israel but that does not mean an eventual move is unlikely.  A potiential alternative would for the Alawites to flee to Lebanon, which has a small Alawite population.  However, any disruption in the delicate religious-ethnic balance in Lebanon would likely end in bloodshed.  Hezbollah, Syria's Shia friends in Lebanon, are unlikely to be accommodating to such a large influx of needy, non-Shia.  Neighboring Turkey has long had its own problem with respecting non-Turkish people.  So if ethnic displacement does occur it would likely be an internationally scattering with perhaps some realizing the Golan is their only chance of sticking together.

If that is the case then Israel's offer may pay dividends in its efforts to keep the Golan Heights.

See also:  Israel's Point-of-View of Vulnerable Geography

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Iran knows the value of its geography... too bad its map has the old borders of Yemen and one Sudan

Iranian Admiral Habibollah Sayyari has told Iranian press that Iran would close the choke point Strait of Hormuz in case Iran was attacked or felt truly threatened.  He further added that closing the strait would be as easy as "drinking a glass of water." Closing the strait, Sayyari claims, would be done by both conventional naval forces as well as asymmetrical tactics, implying suicide boat bombs and forms of terrorism.

The strait at the narrowest are thirty-five miles wide at the point where Iran faces Oman's exclave off the United Arab Emirates.  This narrow geography would allow a small fleet to wreck havoc on oil shipping convoys.

This threat, if acted upon, would cause a serious disruption in the world's oil supply and gasoline prices as well as being a cause of war/theater of war.  Oil from Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates go through the strait to markets in China, Europe, and North America.  Ships transport around 20% of the world's oil supply through the strait.

There are reasons to believe Iran will not do this.  The primary one is Iran needs its oil money to survive.  To close down the strait or to make them a war zone will cost them much of their budget and throw their own economy into a depression.  Also, it would turn a war against American and/or Israel into a war against many of Iran's Arab neighbors.  The United States said that it would reopen the strait by force if need be.  It would not be the first time the United States fought the Islamic Republic of Iran over its actions in hurting the oil trade: Operation Praying Mantis saw the United States sink several Iranian naval ships over Iran's mining Persian Gulf convoy routes.

Saudi Arabia has also vowed to increase oil production if the strait are closed to reduce the economic damage.  However, the shear shock of the closing of the strait would not be fully covered by more oil pumping.  If the strait were to be closed then the world's economy would suffer for some moderate period of time.

The Strait of Hormuz are a chock point and Iran's ultimate trump card in terms of geography.  While the potential of its damaging effect are well known, only time will tell if the strait are actually closed.

Lord's Resistance Army Crisis Map

The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) claims to be the movement for the implementation of the Ten Commandments.  In reality it is a murder cult that combines African mysticism (spirit mediums), Christianity (soldiers pray the Rosary), and even little bits of Islam (some LRA prayer practices require bowing to Mecca).  The war cult is well known for its massacres and brainwashing kidnapped children to become soldiers forced to kill their parents.

Originally the LRA was confined to Uganda but the Ugandan military forced the LRA out in the early 2000s.  The LRA then attempted to turn its effort to capture control of Uganda into a central African regional war.  In 2008 the Ugandans, Southern Sudanese military, and Democratic Republic of the Congo forces chased the LRA out of their sanctuary in northwest Congo.

Sadly the war against the LRA goes on.  The excellent World Geography Blog has linked to the LRA Crisis Tracker which maps out the latest news of LRA battles and crimes.  With American special forces advisers being deployed to combat the LRA this map might heat up soon.

Syria Civil War Maps Batch Two - Syrian Air Defenses

Libyan War Maps 
Syrian Arab Spring Protest Maps - Batch One
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Two - Syrian Air Defenses 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Three - Twitter and News Update Maps 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Four - The Soccer Map  
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Five - Ceasefire Violations
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Six - Houla   
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Seven - June 2012    
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Eight - Battle of Damascus 
Syria Civil War Maps: Batch Nine - September 2012 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Ten - October 2012 
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Eleven - Propaganda Maps
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Twelve - First Quarter 2013
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Thirteen - Chemical Weapons Attack?
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Fourteen - Israel Strikes Again
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Fifteen - Second Quarter 2013
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Sixteen - The Coming Western Intervention
Syria Civil War Maps Batch Seventeen - Al Qaedastan in Iraq and Syria

The protesters, now turning into rebels, in Syria are desperately trying to copy the success the rebels of Libya.  First, the Libyan rebels established a republic by founding a National Transition Council so the Syrian rebels setup on Sunday the Syrian National Council (SNC).

Now the SNC realize that a NATO-led air war in the model of Libya is needed to stop the tide of the Baath Party's Syrian Arab Republic's war machine.  The SNC has not only learned the lessons of Libya but also the need to establish easy to reach information like in Tunisia and Egypt.  To accomplish this SNC has published maps of the Syrian Arab Republic's air defenses!  This pretty much says "bomb here to establish air dominance."  Unlike Iranian protesters, it seems Syrians have no problem with foreign intervention right now.  (Hat tip: Foreign Policy)

Libya War Maps: The Eighth Post - More Battle of Tripoli Maps

BBC Map Guide to Middle East Unrest
Libyan War Maps:  The First Batch
Libyan War Maps:  The Second Batch 
Libyan War Maps:  The Third Batch 
Libyan War Maps:  The Fourth Batch  
Libyan War Maps: The Fifth Batch - The Geography of Oil
Libyan War Maps:  The Sixth Post - The Coalition's Size
Libya War Maps: The Seventh Post - The Invasion of Tripoli

The Twitter account of k_thos and k_thos' Twitpic account has proved to be a gold mine of maps produced by him.

The first map shows how the Libyan Republic's forces, the rebels, moved from the west into Tripoli.

The Road to Tripoli. Click to Enlarge

The second is primarily dedicated to showing the prisons of Tripoli but does a good job showing the neighborhoods, hospitals, and other hot spots for the Battle of Tripoli.

Tripoli Jails, Neighborhoods, Hospitals, and Other Flashpoints. Click to Enlarge.

The final map is k_thos' Google Maps of the battle.  It is full of information and being updated frequently.


View Map: The Battle for Tripoli, LIBYA in a larger map