Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Lebanon in Peril

The country of Lebanon has a very involved history. The country's once Christian-majority attempted Franco-style fascism to stay in power, Sunnis allied with any side which gave them power, Shia became radicalized only to become marginalized, and the Druze proved how vicious one can be after being oppressed by everyone. That was then, but effects last today.

The summer and fall of 2006 was good to those who oppose reform in Lebanon. Hezbollah survived a war against Israel and the Republican Party, seen as a strong opponent of Hezbollah and its backer Iran, lost the midterm elections.

So the those who wish to challenge the recent move to free Lebanon from Syria/Iran/Hezbollah's influence are under siege. At the forefront is Hezbollah's effort to stage a "democratic coup" in which the government steps down and all investigation into the Syrian murder of former PM Rafiq Hariri stopped. Hezbollah currently controls the southern part of Lebanon and is being protected by the United Nations which refuses to follow its own resolution and disarm the terror group.

Not to be outdone by the tri-Shia alliance, al Qaeda is opening up shop in Lebanon. al Qaeda has promised to overthrow the Lebanese government and fight Hezbollah at the same time. As it has proven in Iraq, al Qaeda does not need to be big or have major support to wreck havoc.

So here is the game board: the Christians, Sunnis, and Druze for the most part want to move beyond the civil war to make Lebanon better off. The Shia are being led into another war by Iran and Syria. Foreign, Wahhabized Sunnis want to expand the Afghanistan/Israel/Iraq jihad.

If any of these players makes a "wrong" move expect the United States, Europe, United Nations, and Israel to get involved. Israel has learned that a remote, soft war does not work and would likely go in full force. The United States would probably send in a strike force or two to conduct raids. The United Nations will be paralyzed due to Russian and Chinese interference.

Welcome to the twenty-first century!


Catholicgauze said...

Or could the killings be done by the country with the track record. Sorry your anti-American theory doesn't work out....

Deki said...

Either way, I think everyone is at fault in this situation, you cant just scapegoat one section of people and say they are at fault. I disagree with both of you, I dont think Americans want to stir up the middle east, but I also dont think we can blame every misdeed on Hezbollah. That kind of thinking distorts our own logic.